Madrid open as Champions League favorites in Dortmund final

Real Madrid pulled out yet another stunning win Wednesday to defeat Bayern Munich and advance to the UEFA Champions League Final. They’ll face Borussia Dortmund, who will be looking to cap off a magical run as the ultimate underdog.

The LaLiga champions open as -175 favorites to defeat Dortmund in the last match of European club football’s top competition; Dortmund opens at +375, while the draw stands at +333, per ESPN BET. With the draw option removed, Madrid are -350 and Dortmund are +230. The total stands at 2.5, with the over (-160) favored to the under (+115).

The decisive matchup almost didn’t work out this way. Bayern took a 1-0 lead in the 68th minute of Wednesday’s second semifinal leg, and before Madrid equalized in the 88th minute, their live line was as long as 15-1 to win the match.

Meanwhile, Dortmund had to battle their way back into UCL contention after a rough start to the tournament. After losing to PSG on matchday one in the group stage, BVB’s odds to win the tournament fell to as long as 80-1; after a draw to AC Milan on the second matchday, their odds to win increased slightly to 66-1, but their odds to make the final were 40-1, their longest of the tournament.

Entering the quarterfinals, Dortmund were 25-1 to win it all — last among all remaining clubs and more than double the odds of the next closest, Atlético Madrid.

As a result, Dortmund were not an especially attractive futures option. At DraftKings, just 2% of bets and 3% of handle are on the German club to win it all, while Caesars Sportsbook’s VP of trading Craig Mucklow described a potential all-German final between Dortmund and Munich as “ideal for the book.”

On the other end of the spectrum, Madrid have been extremely popular for the betting public, attracting a UCL-leading 29% of the bets and 35% of the handle at DraftKings. Caesars said the Spanish club is its biggest liability.

“Real Madrid would be the big winner for customers,” Mucklow says.